When Narrow Waters Become Weapons: The Red Sea's Emerging Front Line

Title: The Widening Weaponization of Geography
Writer: Osama Al-Sharif
Published in: Arab News
Date of publication: 6 October 2026

When Narrow Waters Become Weapons: The Red Sea's Emerging Front Line

Maps have always shaped wars, but in the Middle East today a handful of narrow sea passages is shaping almost everything else: oil prices, alliances, military deployments and even diplomatic ruptures between neighbours. These passages are known as chokepoints, narrow routes through which a large share of world trade must pass. Whoever can threaten them gains leverage far beyond their size. The core concern is that such chokepoints are no longer simply trade routes. They have become instruments in regional rivalries, and those rivalries quickly turn into global crises.

1. Two Straits, One Pattern

The first chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, has been at the centre of the war between the United States and Iran. The situation there has reached a stalemate, with both sides claiming control, and global energy prices continue to reflect that uncertainty.

The second, and the one now drawing alarm, lies at the other end of the Arabian Peninsula. The Bab al-Mandab Strait sits between Yemen and the Horn of Africa. It connects the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea, which in turn leads to the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean. Ships moving between Asia and Europe by the shortest route must pass through it. Whoever controls the approaches to this strait holds a lever over Riyadh, Cairo and global shipping. For Saudi Arabia, the Red Sea is a vital coastline; for Egypt, traffic through the Suez Canal depends on what happens at Bab al-Mandab.

The fear is that the southern Red Sea could soon slide into a full regional conflict, adding a second blocked or contested sea route to a world economy already strained by the first.

2. Yemen: The Fight for the Shoreline

The immediate trigger lies in Yemen, where a long civil war has divided the country. The Houthis, an armed movement backed by Iran and described as Iran's proxy, control much of the north. Opposing them is Yemen's internationally recognised government, supported by Saudi Arabia.

Last month the Houthis upset the balance by seizing the port city of Mokha and Perim Island. Mokha lies on Yemen's Red Sea coast close to the strait, and Perim Island sits inside the strait itself. Holding both would have given the Houthis direct influence over one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world. This week, government forces launched a counteroffensive and retook Mokha and other key positions. The episode showed how quickly a local battle in Yemen can become a question of global maritime security.

3. A New Alliance Passes Its First Test

The fighting also tested a new security arrangement. Saudi Arabia's mutual defence pact with Türkiye and Pakistan, an agreement under which each member treats an attack on one as a matter for all, faced its first real trial. On Monday, the three countries agreed to activate their collective defence commitment. They also appointed retired Lieutenant General Numan Mahmud of Pakistan as the alliance's first secretary-general, for a three-year term.

This marks a shift in Gulf security. Saudi Arabia is broadening its partnerships beyond its traditional reliance on Western powers. For Pakistan, the pact places it directly inside the security architecture of the Red Sea and the Gulf.

4. The Horn of Africa: Outposts Across the Water

The other shore of Bab al-Mandab is equally crowded with outside powers.

Somaliland, a territory in the north of Somalia that has run its own affairs for decades without wide international recognition, lies directly opposite Yemen at the mouth of the strait. Last December, Israel officially recognised Somaliland, and there are reports that Israel has explored setting up a base there to gather intelligence and operate against the Houthis.

Türkiye has built an extensive presence in Somalia proper. Since 2011, it has developed its largest overseas military base there, signed a 10-year maritime agreement with Somalia, and in January deployed F-16 fighter jets to Mogadishu, the Somali capital.

Further north, relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have broken down. Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea became independent in the early 1990s, and its desire for access to the sea is a long-standing source of friction. Last week, Eritrea cut diplomatic ties with Ethiopia after Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats. Eritrea accuses Ethiopia of expansionism and of seeking a sea outlet on Eritrean shores.

5. Sudan: The Thread That Ties It Together

Sudan connects all these strands. Its civil war has turned into a proxy competition, meaning a conflict in which outside powers back rival sides to advance their own interests. Because Sudan has a long Red Sea coastline, whoever gains influence there gains a position on the same strategic waterway. The war has deepened the geopolitical fault line running along the Red Sea, and it cannot be treated as a separate humanitarian tragedy unrelated to maritime security.

6. A Combustible Mix

Taken together, these developments create a combustible scenario:

• An Iranian-backed armed group fighting for coastline at the mouth of a global trade route

• A newly activated three-nation defence pact

• Israeli interest in Somaliland and a large Turkish military footprint in Somalia

• A diplomatic rupture between Ethiopia and Eritrea over access to the sea

• A proxy war in Sudan along the same coast

Each conflict alone is serious. Linked through a single narrow strait, they can turn one local spark into a crisis affecting shipping, energy and food prices worldwide.

7. Treating the Red Sea as One Space

The proposed response starts from a simple principle: the Red Sea basin must be treated as one strategic space, not as a series of unrelated crises. This calls for:

• A regional security dialogue among the states bordering the Red Sea

• Decisively weakening the Houthis' ability to threaten navigation

• Preventing new foreign military outposts in Somaliland and Somalia that raise tensions further

• Ending the habit of treating Sudan's war as a sideshow

• A coordinated Western strategy that links these issues rather than reacting to each in isolation

Geography cannot be changed, but its use as a weapon can be limited. That depends on whether regional states and outside powers choose shared security over competing claims to the same waters.

Exam Essentials

1. Key Facts and Figures

• Strait of Hormuz: stalemate, with both the US and Iran claiming control

• Bab al-Mandab: links the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea and Suez Canal

• Last month: Houthis seized Mokha and Perim Island; this week: government forces retook Mokha

• Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan activated their collective defence commitment on Monday

• Retired Lt Gen Numan Mahmud (Pakistan): first secretary-general, three-year term

• December: Israel recognised Somaliland

• Türkiye in Somalia: presence since 2011; largest overseas base; 10-year maritime agreement; F-16s to Mogadishu in January

• Last week: Eritrea cut ties with Ethiopia after 10 Eritrean diplomats were expelled

2. Key Terms

• Chokepoint: a narrow passage through which large volumes of trade must pass

• Weaponisation of geography: using control of strategic locations as leverage in conflict

• Proxy: an armed group or state acting on behalf of an outside power

• Proxy war: a conflict in which outside powers back rival sides

• Collective defence: a commitment that an attack on one member concerns all members

• Landlocked state: a country with no coastline

• Somaliland: a self-governing territory in northern Somalia with limited recognition

• Horn of Africa: the region including Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti

3. Related Subjects

• International Relations: alliances, proxy conflicts, balance of power

• Geopolitics: maritime chokepoints, sea lanes, strategic geography

• Middle East and Africa Affairs: Yemen, Sudan, Horn of Africa

• Pakistan's Foreign Policy: defence ties with Saudi Arabia and Türkiye

• International Economics: shipping, energy prices, Suez Canal trade

4. Useful Arguments

• Control of narrow sea routes gives small actors outsized global influence.

• Local wars near chokepoints quickly become international crises.

• Foreign military bases can deter threats but also intensify rivalry.

• Regional problems linked by geography need a regional framework.

• New defence pacts reflect Gulf states' diversification of security partners.

• Ignoring humanitarian conflicts like Sudan's allows them to feed strategic instability.

5. Probable Questions

1. "Maritime chokepoints have become the new battlefields of geopolitics." Discuss with reference to Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab.

2. Examine the significance of the Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan defence pact for regional security and for Pakistan's foreign policy.

3. How do conflicts in the Horn of Africa and Yemen threaten Red Sea security, and what framework can address them?

6. One Quotable Line

"A strait is only a few kilometres wide, but the crises it can carry span the whole world."