Global Warming and Why Pakistan Cannot Afford to Wait

Title: Global Warming and Why Pakistan Cannot Afford to Wait
Writer: Yasir Ali Bhatti
Published in: The Friday Times
Date of publication: 23 October 2026

2.8 Degrees and Counting: What the New Emissions Gap Report Means for Pakistan

Every year, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) publishes a report that works like a school progress card for the planet. It compares two things: how much the world has promised to cut its greenhouse gas emissions, and how much it actually needs to cut them to keep global warming within safe limits. The distance between the two is called the emissions gap. The 2026 edition, released on 14 October, delivers a blunt verdict. Current efforts are not enough, and countries like Pakistan, which did little to cause the problem, will feel the consequences first and hardest.

1. Where the World Is Heading

The benchmark for these reports comes from the Paris Agreement of 2015, under which countries agreed to try to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Each country submits its own climate pledge, known as a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).

The 2026 report shows how far reality has drifted from that goal:

• On the current trend, the world is heading for warming of up to 2.8°C by the end of the century.

• Even if every country fully kept its climate pledges, warming would still reach about 2.6°C.

These numbers may sound small, but they are averages for the entire planet. A rise of this size means far more extreme heat in many regions, heavier and more erratic rainfall, faster glacier melt and longer droughts.

2. How Steep the Cuts Must Be

To get back on a 1.5°C path, even allowing for a period of temporarily overshooting that limit before returning to it by 2100, emissions would need to fall sharply from 2025 levels:

• 18 per cent by 2030

• 45 per cent by 2035

• 69 per cent by 2040

There is some good news. Solar and wind power are growing rapidly worldwide. But clean electricity alone cannot make up for slow progress across the rest of the economy, in transport, industry, buildings and agriculture. The report’s message to governments is to move faster on renewable energy, improve energy efficiency, reduce dependence on fossil fuels and protect forests, which absorb carbon from the air.

3. Why Pakistan Is on the Front Line

For Pakistan, global warming is not a distant forecast. The 2022 floods, which affected more than 33 million people, showed how a single season of extreme weather can wipe out homes, farmland, roads and bridges across whole districts. Several kinds of risk now overlap:

• Agriculture: changes in temperature and rainfall can reduce crop and livestock yields, cutting rural incomes and pushing up food prices for everyone.

• Water: higher temperatures increase evaporation and raise demand for water, while shifting rainfall and melting ice make rivers less predictable. Rivers, lakes, underground aquifers and irrigation systems all need better management.

• Urban heat: in crowded cities, heatwaves are a direct threat to outdoor workers, children, the elderly and poor families who cannot afford cooling.

Global warming will not wait until Pakistan is richer, better governed or better prepared. Each delay makes the eventual bill larger.

4. Low Emissions, High Exposure

Pakistan’s share of the world’s historical emissions is negligible. The wealthy industrialised countries that burned fossil fuels for over a century bear far greater responsibility. This is the principle behind demands for climate justice: those who caused the problem should do more to fix it and help others cope.

That argument is fair, and Pakistan should press it hard in international climate negotiations, seeking money, technology and expertise. Developed countries must meet their promises on climate finance and help poorer nations build resilience, the ability to absorb shocks and recover from them.

But low historical emissions do not excuse inaction at home. Floods and heatwaves do not check who caused them. Pakistan has to protect its own people regardless of who is to blame.

5. What Pakistan Can Do Now

The useful steps fall into a few clear areas.

Cleaner energy. Pakistan can expand solar and wind power, supported by better grid planning, energy storage and smarter management of demand. Large savings are available from improving energy efficiency in homes, offices, factories and government buildings.

Transport. Cleaner public transport, a stronger railway network and better options for moving around cities would cut both emissions and fuel import bills.

Technology. Digital energy monitoring and artificial intelligence can help detect waste, forecast demand and run systems more efficiently. These tools help, but they cannot replace sound policy and real investment.

Adaptation. This is where the need is most urgent. Adaptation means preparing for climate impacts that can no longer be avoided. In practice, that includes better flood management and drainage, more efficient irrigation, early warning systems for floods and heatwaves, forest protection, and designing roads, housing and power systems with climate risk in mind.

Governance. Federal and provincial governments need to set clear goals, divide responsibilities and report on progress. Universities, researchers, businesses and local communities should be part of the effort. With limited money, Pakistan should focus on its most urgent problems first rather than spreading resources thin.

6. The Price of Delay

The UNEP report is a warning to the whole world, and above all to the largest emitters, who must cut faster. For Pakistan, the lesson is more immediate. It cannot control global emissions, but it can control how ready it is for what is coming. The cost of acting is real, but the cost of waiting will almost certainly be higher, paid in lost harvests, damaged cities and lives disrupted by the next flood or heatwave.

Exam Essentials

1. Key Facts and Figures

• UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026, released 14 October 2026

• Current trend: warming of up to 2.8°C by 2100; with all pledges met: about 2.6°C

• Cuts needed from 2025 levels for a 1.5°C pathway: 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035, 69 per cent by 2040

• Paris Agreement (2015): goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C

• 2022 floods in Pakistan affected more than 33 million people

• Pakistan’s historical share of global emissions: negligible

2. Key Terms

• Emissions gap: the difference between promised and required emission cuts

• Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC): a country’s climate pledge under the Paris Agreement

• Overshoot: temporarily exceeding a temperature limit before returning below it

• Mitigation: reducing greenhouse gas emissions

• Adaptation: preparing for unavoidable climate impacts

• Resilience: the ability to absorb shocks and recover

• Climate finance: funding to help countries cut emissions and adapt

• Climate justice: the principle that those most responsible should bear more of the burden

• Early warning system: technology and procedures that alert people to coming disasters

3. Related Subjects

• Environmental Science: global warming, greenhouse gases, renewable energy

• Pakistan Affairs: climate vulnerability, floods, water and food security

• International Relations: climate diplomacy, North-South divide

• Economics: climate finance, costs of disasters, energy transition

• Governance: federal-provincial coordination, disaster management

4. Useful Arguments

• Global climate pledges remain far short of what science requires.

• Countries with the lowest emissions often face the highest climate risks.

• Adaptation is an urgent necessity for Pakistan, not an optional policy.

• Climate justice demands greater action and finance from developed countries.

• Clean energy can cut both emissions and costly fuel imports.

• Delaying climate action raises the long-term economic and human cost.

5. Probable Questions

1. “Pakistan contributes little to global warming but suffers greatly from it.” Discuss the implications for its climate policy.

2. Examine the findings of the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026 and their significance for the Paris Agreement goals.

3. What adaptation strategies should Pakistan adopt to protect its agriculture, water and cities from climate change?

6. One Quotable Line

“Floods do not ask who caused the warming; they only find those who were not prepared.”

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